Building a betting model

Are you looking for advice about how to build a betting model for sports betting? We have compiled out favorite tips. As always, these are guidelines and you may need to tinker with them to make them suit you. Building a sports betting model is not an easy task that can be done in a jiffy – at least not if you want to do it property.

A sports betting model is used to identify unbiased reference points from where you can determine the probability for all outcomes of a particular situation, such as a soccer game or tennis match. Such a model is helpful for the punter since it showcases potentially profitable betting opportunities.

What is the aim of your sports betting model?

The first step is to identify the aim of the sports betting model you wish to construct. Make the aim narrow enough and it will be easier for you not to get overwhelmed by data. A common pitfall is to try and create the perfect, all knowing, betting model. With this approach, many punters end up with a blunt and not very functional betting model that took forever to build.

Once you have identified your aim, you should also select a quantifiable metric for your betting model.

Obtain, sorts and value relevant data for your model

betting modellIt is now time for you to integrate data into your algorithm. Thanks to the internet, finding data isn’t difficult, but this abundance comes with a new problem – which data is actually relevant enough to be entered into your algorithm? I sit here with all the outcome data available for my favorite Bundesliga team, but should I really include data from all their matches in my algorithm or should I stick to Bundesliga matches only? You will have some hard decisions to make at this stage.

Also, don’t focus solely on the internet for data procurement. There might be data available to you that isn’t available online that can give your analysis that extra umpf.

Pick a form for your betting model

You can either use a pre-existing form for your betting model or invent your own. A lot of different models are available online if you don’t feel like tailoring your own. If this is your first betting model, I would advice picking a pre-made model and make sure that it isn’t very complex. Do not over complicate things for yourself.

N.B! When you have picked a model, you might have to go back to the previous stage because you find out that your model requires certain data that you don’t have yet.

Models make assumptions

All betting models make assumptions, it is just a question of which ones they make. It is important that you know about the assumptions made by your betting model and the possible consequences of such assumptions. If you don’t know the limitations, you can end up in a mess.

Tools for building the model

There are a lot of tools available that can help you with the practicalities of building your sports betting model, such as Microsoft Excel, OpenOffice Calc, MatLab, or Python.

Test the model – don’t skip this step!

It is very important that you test your model thoroughly before you start relying on it. You must for instance find out how sensitive it is. During this step, you should be open to going back to previous steps and make adjustments to get a better model.

As a part of your testing, make pretend bets with the help of your model and see if you make a reasonably long-term profit. Diving right in with real money bets without going through the testing stage can be very expensive.

Take good care of your model

Your model will need continuous maintenance to stay on top.